The Financial Planning Blog
Home of the NSCEF
Monday, August 29, 2011
Speculative pick- technical
From a basic technical view, I am bullish on Sep Calls of Nike at 87.50 trading for $2.23. Expecting a quick 30% upward movement. Shall keep you posted on the results.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
NSCEF fund update -WiLan takeover offer to Mosaid Technologies
Hello folks, I am glad to inform that another stock that I had as a part of my 19-stock portfolio can potentially be bought out. WiLan has made an all-cash deal to takeover Mosaid Technologies. The stock is up 25% today and I promptly got out of it with 50% gains after initiating a purchase back on October 25, 2010 when I put my portfolio together. If successful, this would be the second such instance after Timberwest Forest was taken over by a pension plan behemoth. I am not here to brag about my fund or my picks, but this in my opinion stands testimony to the fact that if your stocks have inherent value, it is just a matter of time before the market and competitors identify it. There are numerous websites and market gurus who claim to help you become a millionaire even before you can count the number of zeros in a million (all the power to them) however, isn't investing supposed to be a prudent approach to financial independence? And by the way, what happens to your peaceful sleep at night if you spend all the time thinking about what may happen to your money that has been invested? If slow and steady wins the race, I want reassert that slow movers are not stupids.
Well, back to my fund. Having closed 6 of my positions, the fund has $68000 in cash and $66000 in equity- up by 34% . Due to lack of time and prices that I was not comfortable with, I did not buy any stock so far. Now that the markets have corrected a bit, I hope I can scout for some value picks. The Philly Fed rocked the markets as I write this and J P Morgan has warned that the US may be dangerously close to a recession. Let us not forget, a country is just a collection of people and resources. If mismanagement of debt is a bad thing for an individual, I don't think why it would not mean the same for a country - does it matter if it is the US? In my opinion, I don't think so.
Well, back to my fund. Having closed 6 of my positions, the fund has $68000 in cash and $66000 in equity- up by 34% . Due to lack of time and prices that I was not comfortable with, I did not buy any stock so far. Now that the markets have corrected a bit, I hope I can scout for some value picks. The Philly Fed rocked the markets as I write this and J P Morgan has warned that the US may be dangerously close to a recession. Let us not forget, a country is just a collection of people and resources. If mismanagement of debt is a bad thing for an individual, I don't think why it would not mean the same for a country - does it matter if it is the US? In my opinion, I don't think so.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Short - Defense Contracting Companies
Although markets everywhere look like a shorter's paradise, I am keen on the US Defense contractors. Now that the US debt had been downgraded, they are forced to take austerity measures to avoid further downgrade. When it comes to cutting costs, especially for the US, a good chunk has to come by cutting down defense spending. In my opinion, Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) are the pick of defense shorts. I have left out Boeing, considering the fact that the company has good exposure to civilian markets which may not just be the same as defense but does provide some consolation. Both Lockheed and Northrop are highly defense-inclined. A cut in that is going to pinch, maybe hard. So what have I done here?
Bought Jan 2012 puts on LMT @ 5.60 with a strike price of 72.50
Bought Jan 2012 puts on NOC @ 3.20 with a strike price of 55.00
I am expecting 100% returns on each one of these puts. Let us see. I shall keep you updated on the progress. The reason for buying long term puts is that I expect the impact of cuts in spending to take at least a couple of quarters to show its real face in the earnings though I expect it sooner.
Labels:
Derivatives,
Economy,
Options Trading,
Trading Calls,
Trading strategies
Monday, July 18, 2011
Speculative pick - Closed - Up 30%
Sold Orcl puts bought in the last trading session of friday, for 1.32 each, up by 30% after commissions. (good for one day!!!)
Labels:
Options Trading
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